What is the purpose of a Budget? To stabilise the national finances? To kickstart economic growth? If you’re John Healey, it may be to show the markets that you’re fiscally responsible and the public finances are safe in your hands.

If you’re Andy Burnham, the goal is to show the public that you’re trying to do something about the rising cost of living – and to convince Labour MPs that they were right to give you the job. But Burnham also has big plans to transform the country and this was a Budget more about tinkering than transformation.

Yes, defence will get £5 billion more by letting the National Wealth Fund borrow off the public balance sheet to invest in defence companies. By introducing a new ‘founder’s relief’ to give tax breaks on entrepreneurs’ first £10 million of earnings, Healey showed that he understands the need to win back business. It is certainly no bad thing that Healey only put up tax by £6.9 billion, dwarfed by the £75 billion by Rachel Reeves.

A December election would also mean Reform would have little time to install paid campaigners in key seats

A December election would also mean Reform would have little time to install paid campaigners in key seats

But when even the Prime Minister agrees the country is in crisis, why was it all so milquetoast? The explanation the Chancellor gave is that the international situation is likely to make things unpredictably worse in the months ahead – particularly if Israel and the US reopen hostilities with Iran.

But another explanation is more intriguing. It looks very much as though the Budget was designed not to disrupt Labour’s steady climb in the opinion polls, leaving open the possibility of an early........

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