It’s Budget day. The run-up to Andy Burnham and John Healey’s first fiscal event has been rather less eventful than last year. There’ve been no daily leaks, no pitch-rolling press conferences and no hysteria. Everything that’s trickled out to the papers over the last few days has been small beer.

So we have a mystery: will this Budget be trick, treat, both or neither? If what Healey unveils to the House of Commons just after 12.30 today proves small in terms of spending and revenue, the Treasury team will be briefing that this was prudence rather than boring. With economic growth tentatively coming back to life so far this year, and following two Reeves Budgets which hiked taxes by a record £75 billion, they know there is little room for anything big.

Healey’s overall aim is for his Budget to give ‘breathing space for businesses and households’. What that is likely to mean is small measures paid for by small tax rises on banks, bookies and big businesses. One such measure was already announced this morning: the scrapping of standing charges on gas bills. That will be paid for by increasing the unit charge on gas charges but it brings bills down because it rewards efficiency in gas usage. Expect more of that.

Otherwise here are ten things I’ll be watching out for in the Budget statement and the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)’s report:

1. What’s actually happening with headroom?

When Rachel Reeves sat down after last November’s Budget........

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