President Trump has assembled the largest naval force in the Caribbean since the Cold War. How will it be used? Is he considering an attack on Venezuela to overthrow the Maduro regime? Will he pursue the drug cartels by attacking them in Venezuela? Or will the President simply continue America’s counterdrug operations at sea? With all of these possibilities there is the hope that the Maduro regime will collapse under the pressure of America’s military might.

The arrival of the Gerald R Ford seems to signal some sort of direct action against Venezuela

At present, the United States is countering the flow of illegal drugs by sinking suspected drug-carrying boats off the coast of Venezuela. The effort is in its 11th week and has led to at least 21 vessels being destroyed. US counterdrug operations in the Caribbean have been going on for decades and have bipartisan support (although the use of lethal force does not). In 2023, President Trump campaigned against drug smuggling, calling it an attack on US citizens. Yet he also cautioned against being involved in foreign conflicts. As he said in his inaugural address: ‘We will measure our success not only by the battles we win, but also by the wars that we end, and perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into.’ The current approach to Venezuela balances these two commitments.

The political challenge is that, having built up such military strength and made explicit threats against the regime (with Trump........

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