In the run-up to the US election, it was expected that the count could take days, possibly a week. Now, it looks like the 2024 election will be decided in a matter of hours. Swing states North Carolina and Georgia have been called for Donald Trump. Fox News reports that the most crucial swing state in this election – Pennsylvania – has been won by Trump. The surprise Selzer poll from over the weekend, showing Kamala Harris three points ahead in Iowa, proved badly wrong: Trump has won the state. The Republican candidate is now only a few electoral votes away from clinching the presidency. The prediction market Polymarket at 6am GMT gives the former president a 98 per cent chance of winning the election, and a 74 per cent change of winning the popular vote (this is up from 76 per cent at 3.40am GMT).

It’s not just the betting markets that are moving in Trump’s favour. The New York Times’s live ’needle’ has swung dramatically towards the former president, from ‘tossup’ at the start of the evening to a ‘very........

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