Unless something shifts profoundly in the current direction of the US war on Iran, the Iranian regime appears set to survive this round of conflict. Survival alone does not represent victory for Tehran. If, however, the fighting ends with the Iranians still in control of the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic balance in the Middle East will have shifted, with likely profound consequences for the future direction of the region. 

The US and Israel are continuing to demonstrate their absolute superiority over Iran in the conventional military arena. Israel’s air force is working its way down a long list of regime and military targets. But planners in Israel no longer expect that their air action will plausibly lead to or assist a popular revolt in Iran to bring down the regime. No such revolt looks likely to appear. Rather, the Iranian system is currently demonstrating its durability in a number of key areas.

Regarding the nuclear file, the regime maintains access to around 450 kg of uranium enriched to 60 per cent. This means that should it choose to do so, it could move rapidly (within a few months) to produce sufficient uranium enriched to weapons-grade for the production of about ten nuclear devices, according to an IAEA yardstick.   

To the region, it will be clear that the will of the US was thwarted by Iranian action

To the region, it will be clear that the will of the US was thwarted by Iranian action

Regarding Iran’s ballistic missile programme, undoubtedly its launch capacities have been severely battered in the course of the last month. Still, Iran (and its Lebanese, Yemeni and Iraqi allies) are launching drones and missiles at Israel,........

© The Spectator