A new MRP poll has predicted that were an election held tomorrow, Nigel Farage’s Reform party would be the third biggest in the Commons, on 123 seats, against 130 for the Tories and 241 for Labour. The poll shows that Reform have been particularly hit by Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain, who would take over three percentage points from Farage’s party and cost them marginal seats across the country. On the face of it this might all seem to be grim news for Nigel Farage, and cause for celebration by Kemi Badenoch, but there are good reasons to challenge this narrative.

Firstly, this has come after a terrible summer of headlines for Reform including numerous funding stories, a parliamentary standards investigation into Farage and the infamous Channel 4 undercover sting which resulted in the departure of Dan Jukes and James Orr from the party’s operations. As a result, naturally, Reform’s support has been hit, and it seems we have found their polling floor in the low 20s, significantly above the Tory and Labour floors in the teens. Assuming no more significant scandals, this provides Reform with a solid base to build on.

Further, Restore Britain’s inherent contradictions, between a leader whose policies differ little from Reform’s, and much more radical, and even extreme........

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