When President Trump speaks to Congress and the nation Tuesday night he will follow several familiar tropes. Like a long line of presidents before him, Trump will say the state of the union is great and take full credit for it. They all say that, unless we are in a recession or at war. They typically add that everything is getting better, too, thanks to their wise policies. In a nod to the next election, they warn voters that the only thing stopping our country from reaching even greater heights is the mule-headed opposition of the opposing party and a few Supreme Court Justices.

What differs each year are the specifics. This time, Trump is likely to focus on three topics that will move voters this November: the economy, including jobs, taxes, and inflation; illegal immigration; and Iran.

The economy dominates voters’ choices in every election. Recent polls show voters feel uncomfortable despite slowing inflation and GDP growth of well over 3 percent. Good as those macro numbers are, average Americans just aren’t feeling it. Unless that gloomy mood lifts by summer, Republicans will face a fate worse than the normal mid-term losses for the party in power.

Why the gloom? Three reasons stand out. First, consumer budgets are pinched. Trump would be wise to drop his previous efforts to tell people they aren’t feeling it. They know what they feel.

A far better approach is to emphasize that his policies are working, that voters will see their positive effects clearly in coming months, and that these policies are digging our country out of problems created by Democrats, who will only repeat their failures if they return to power. He will undoubtedly point to President Biden’s record of high inflation and slow income growth. 

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But voters are far less interested in that backward-looking blame game than in forward-looking policies that will lift them out of those troubles. Trump could tag Biden with those problems during his first year back in office but that “sell-by” date has now expired. It’s time to move on.

Voters want solutions they can feel. What Trump can say, without his........

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