Donald Trump on Thursday allowed India to import more Russian oil. India recently did a deal with the US that reduced tariffs in exchange for it buying less crude from Moscow. That deal now seems to be on pause. The move might be seen as a version of the Trump tariff acronym ‘Taco’ (Trump Always Chickens Out), but really it is an acknowledgement of several uncomfortable truths. Scott Bessent, the US treasury secretary, has said that he’s considering lifting sanctions on other Russian oil.

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Trump knows that increased demand for Russian oil will create a windfall for Russia’s deeply stressed war budget and complicate already difficult peace talks. The Indian license comes only weeks after a fresh round of negotiations in Geneva between the US and Russia to end the war in Ukraine. While the Trump administration’s year-long efforts to end Russia’s war on Ukraine can best be described as halting, a surge in revenue to the Russian treasury will hardly encourage Moscow to return to the negotiating table.

The outlook for the Russian economy remains consistently grim, but short of extremis.........

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