The latest economic data suggest that geopolitics is once again becoming a decisive force shaping India’s macroeconomic outlook

Four numbers landed within days of each other this month, and together they tell a sharper story than any one of them alone. The rupee has pushed back above 96 to the dollar. Retail inflation jumped to 4.38 per cent in June, breaching the RBI’s 4 per cent target for the first time in 17 months. The trade deficit widened to a five-month high of $30.4 billion. And the RBI, having just paused in June, is now facing market chatter about a rate hike as early as August. Individually, each is explainable.

Together, they describe an economy absorbing a shock it did not create. That shock has a name: the renewed war between the........

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