A quarter of the gas, gone in 10 days

The Strait of Hormuz is a strip of water barely 40 kilometres wide at its narrowest point, lying between Iran and the coast of Oman. Through it passes roughly a fifth of the world’s petroleum trade and a substantial share of its liquefied natural gas. When the direct military confrontation between the United States, Israel, and Iran began, shipping insurers raised their rates, tanker operators began diverting to longer routes, and several LNG and crude cargoes bound for Asia were cancelled or delayed within the first week. 

For India, which imports over 85% of its crude oil and a growing volume of LNG through Gulf routes, the effect was immediate. Within 10 days, the country’s natural gas availability had contracted by an estimated 25–30%, from around 160 million cubic metres a day to somewhere between 120–130 million cubic metres.

The government responded with the Natural Gas (Supply Regulation) Order, 2026, a tiered allocation framework that protects households, transport, fertiliser plants, and LPG production at their full normal supply, while cutting refineries and power stations to 80%, petrochemicals to 70%, and industrial and commercial users to 65%. As a first administrative response to a supply shock of this scale, it is reasonable. It is also, in several important respects, incomplete.

The dhaba problem nobody is talking about

The allocation order divides the world neatly into households, which are protected, and commercial users, which are not. The commercial category bears the brunt of the 35% supply reduction. What falls into that category, among much else, is every hotel, dhaba, roadside eatery, canteen, and community kitchen in urban India.

This matters for a reason that should not need to be explained in 2026, six years after the COVID-19 lockdown made it visible to the entire country. India has an estimated 100 million internal migrants working in cities far from their home states. Most of them do not have home kitchens. They eat at the low-cost eateries within walking distance of construction sites, factories, and slum settlements. These establishments run on piped gas or LPG. A 35% supply cut does not merely inconvenience them; at their thin margins, it forces them to raise prices, reduce hours, or........

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