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Guest Essay

By John B. Judis and Ruy Teixeira

Mr. Judis and Mr. Teixeira are the authors of “Where Have All the Democrats Gone?”

In his victory speech last week, Donald Trump declared that a “historic realignment” in American politics had occurred. His claim has been echoed by Republican intellectuals. In a podcast the day after, Michael Needham, the chairman of American Compass, said, “We are seeing the realignment come to mind.”

As writers who once made an argument for a potential emerging Democratic majority, we are especially curious when a new one comes up — and because of our own experience, we treat claims by Mr. Trump and others of a durable Republican realignment with some skepticism.

There are two meanings for a realignment claim. The first is that the parties’ coalitions have changed. This is undeniable, but the changes really began during the period from the 1970s through 1994. During that time, portions of the white working class began their journey from the Democratic to the Republican Party. They were originally called Reagan Democrats.

Alternately, many college-educated voters began leaving the G.O.P. for the Democrats. Geographically, the South, once solidly Democratic, came to lean Republican, while Northern states, once dominated by liberal or moderate Republicans, became more Democratic.

That process has continued. In the last decade, we have seen a significant slice of Hispanics vote Republican. In 2024, the AP VoteCast survey found that Mr. Trump won 43 percent of the Hispanic vote and 48 percent of Hispanic men. He also got 16 percent of Black voters and 25 percent of Black men. He got 33 percent of the vote from minorities who had not graduated from college. These figures suggest that the Republicans’ working-class support cannot be described as just white.

Democrats in turn have begun to build support not just among professionals but also among broader swathes of the college educated. Kamala Harris, like Joe Biden in 2020, carried college-educated white voters. In 2016, Hillary Clinton lost these voters.

These two coalitions have been roughly equal in size, and the parties have alternated in power according to the effectiveness of the campaigns and the salience of certain issues. In 2020, Mr. Biden benefited from Mr. Trump’s mishandling of the pandemic. In 2024, Mr. Trump benefited from Ms. Harris’s identification with the inflation and high levels of illegal immigration under the Biden administration.

There is, however, a stronger meaning of “realignment.” That is not only when the party coalitions change, but also when one party’s coalition comes to dominate American........

© The New York Times