In recent days, a widening popular uprising has taken shape across Iran, as protests driven by deepening economic chaos intensify. In fact, the unrest has already left at least 20 people dead and nearly 1,000 arrested, but while the protests are rooted in economic pressures, popular grievances extend well beyond it, expressing a deeper confrontation with the Islamic Republic’s political order itself. Unlike earlier protest waves, this unrest unfolds as Iran’s core pillars—its economic viability, coercive capacity, and external deterrence—fail simultaneously, creating a systemic crisis the regime has never faced and may not survive.

Crucially, the regime’s failures are starkly visible in Iran’s accelerating water crisis, which has evolved from an environmental strain into a political fault line. A country of more than 90 million people is confronting its worst drought in over half a century, with collapsing aquifers, dried rivers, and water rationing spreading across cities and provinces. Instead of addressing decades of reckless dam construction and unsustainable agricultural policy, the regime has increasingly shifted blame outward. Iranian officials and state-aligned media have accused neighboring countries such as Turkey, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia of diverting rain clouds, and more recently have alleged that the United States and Israel are manipulating the weather.

Moreover, Iran’s water crisis directly contributes to prolonged power cuts that further intensify unrest. Power generation in Iran depends heavily on water-intensive infrastructure, leaving the grid vulnerable as reservoirs shrink. Chronic blackouts now disrupt daily life, turning infrastructure failure into immediate political anger and, alongside water shortages, accelerating mass unrest.

These resource failures are symptoms of a deeper constraint, one that operates not at the level of infrastructure but at the level of finance and state capacity. In fact, the first and second Trump administrations imposed sanctions of an unprecedented scope and intensity. Under the first “maximum pressure” campaign, the designation of the Central Bank of Iran on terrorism financing grounds severed the country from the global financial system.........

© The National Interest