Regional rivals India and Pakistan have fought four border conflicts, as well as a series of regional skirmishes and military standoffs. 

The roots of the animosity go back before the 1947 Partition of India, which divided the country in half. Inter-communal violence between Hindus, Sikhs, and Muslims will likely ensure that lasting peace in the region remains elusive.

As India launched missiles into Pakistani-controlled territory on Tuesday, the countries inched closer to full-blown war, a worrisome trend as both are nuclear powers.

“It is often said that India and Pakistan know the dance of escalation better than most nations on Earth. They have rehearsed it for decades: a terrorist attack occurs, New Delhi blames Islamabad, airstrikes or artillery fire follow, and the world holds its breath while diplomats scramble to contain the crisis,” geopolitical analyst Irina Tsukerman, president of threat assessment firm Scarab Rising, told The National Interest. 

“Then, almost as suddenly, the temperature drops. Statements are walked back. The Line of Control (LoC) simmers but doesn’t boil. The script resets.”

But every script eventually frays.

“Ordinarily, this situation would not threaten global stability,” added Dr. Usha Haley, W. Frank Barton distinguished chair in international business and professor of management at the Barton School of Business at Wichita State University. 

“But, given the high level of political and economic uncertainty worldwide and the world being forced to choose between the U.S. and Chinese camps, the situation becomes unpredictable. Also, nuclear arms compound the threat.”

The two nations have gone to the brink more times than actual full-blown war has broken out, and this time may be no different.

“Chances are that this latest incident should blow over. Certainly, if rationality prevails, neither country can benefit. But some conditions hinder de-escalation,” warned Haley.

The terrorist attack last month was far more targeted than in the past.

“It appears that the attackers from Pakistan deliberately discriminated based on religion, targeting twenty-three Hindu tourists to kill. Modi retaliated with strikes that not only took out the terrorist bases but killed three civilians, moving deeper into Pakistan than in fifty years,” Haley told The National Interest. 

“There is also a real danger of China, an ally of Pakistan and a........

© The National Interest