A satellite view of oil installations on Kharg Island in the Persian Gulf. The Trump administration could use the threat of attacks on Kharg Island to bring Iran back to the negotiating table. (Shutterstock/Aerial Viewer)

How Trump Can Use Kharg Island as a Pressure Point Against Iran

Share this link on Facebook

Share this page on X (Twitter)

Share this link on LinkedIn

Share this page on Reddit

Email a link to this page

A credible escalation ladder against Tehran’s main oil terminal is a logical and realistic way to induce Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.  

The United States and the free world stand at a critical juncture that demands realistic decision-making based on the political and military realities of today. Following America’s entry into the Iran war on February 28, the current conflict has exacted a punishing toll on the American public. Voters have already endured $29 billion in direct munitions expenditures, alongside a $25 billion spike at the gas pump and surging prices across 6,000 petroleum-based products. Despite these high costs, the fragile, temporary ceasefire is teetering, and the urgent priority of reopening the Strait of Hormuz is nowhere in sight. 

Iran Thinks Time Is on Its Side—and Is Negotiating Accordingly 

That Iran, with its vastly inferior conventional military, can stand toe-to-toe with the United States is a direct result of a calculated gamble its leaders made at the start of the war. Tehran is counting on the assumption that President Donald Trump’s threat of a larger war—“go in for two more weeks and do every single target”— will never actually be executed. The American public has no appetite for a lingering air war, let alone for “boots on the ground” inside Iran itself. The saving grace of the air campaign is that US casualties have so far been remarkably few, with only 13 US servicemembers killed since February 28. A ground war against Iran would lead to a far higher toll, and far greater negative consequences for the Trump administration. 

With little danger of an existential threat to its rule via an American ground invasion, the regime believes it can safely refuse to negotiate because time is on its side. With skyrocketing oil prices from the prolonged Hormuz closure, Trump’s approval ratings floundering, and the November midterm elections approaching, Tehran expects American political gridlock to intensify, paralyzing decision-making in Washington. By waiting, Iranian officials reason they can extort massive concessions from the United States—such as the return of billions of dollars more in frozen assets, unchecked control over the Strait of Hormuz, and more room to continue developing nuclear weapons under the guise of a peaceful program. 

As I wrote on May 21, a US negotiation framework that prioritizes reopening the Strait of Hormuz over longer-term nuclear issues would provide a sensible........

© The National Interest