Amid War with Iran, the Arab World Is Looking for New Partners

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Iran’s missile strikes on its Arab neighbors might lead those neighbors to seek closer ties with the United States—but could also cause them to distance themselves from it.

On March 10, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth claimed that Iran had made a major error by launching drone and missile attacks against its Arab neighbors across the Persian Gulf. Hegseth argued that Iran had revealed who it was and what it represented through those attacks—and claimed that its Arab neighbors could not rely on appeasing Tehran in order to avoid future attacks. Alongside Hegseth, many other analysts also concluded that Iran’s attacks on its neighbors were a costly strategic mistake, arguing that they would push the Arab states of the Persian Gulf closer to Iran’s adversaries, Israel and the United States.

Rhetoric from the Gulf has matched this perception. On March 18, senior Emirati officials, including Anwar Gargash, an advisor to UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, argued that Iran’s attacks on the Persian Gulf states had pushed them closer to Israel and the United States. It is unclear what motivated Gargash’s rare public assessment. On the one hand, he may genuinely believe that this is the direction in which Iran’s Arab neighbors are heading as a result of these attacks. Alternatively, he may be using this claim as a shot across the bow to Iran, suggesting that an expanded American-Israeli alignment that includes Arab states could emerge in order to pressure Iran to halt its attacks.

Still, none of these warnings stopped the continuation of Iranian attacks. It is fair to say that, in the post-war era, if the regime survives, Iran’s attacks against the Gulf states will carry strategic costs. Iran has invested significant time and effort in pursuing détente with Arab states, including its China-brokered rapprochement with Saudi Arabia. The attacks carried out by Iran against its neighbors have set back these efforts and are likely to sour relations for a prolonged period, particularly given the scale of the attacks and the damage inflicted.

Given these clear strategic disadvantages, why is Iran continuing these attacks? For Tehran, the benefits of continuing these operations appear to outweigh the risk of pushing Arab states closer to Israel. From Iran’s perspective, the war is both existential and asymmetric. Lacking the military capability to directly confront the United States and Israel, Iran relies instead on economic means to respond to their pressure. In practice, this means exerting pressure on global energy markets by closing the Strait of Hormuz and targeting its Arab neighbors—leading to economic chaos and fear, prompting Westerners to flee those countries, and ultimately inflicting substantial second-order costs on the United States.

Yet this strategy comes at a significant cost. If the Islamic Republic survives the war, it will face the consequences of undermining years of diplomatic effort aimed at achieving détente with the Arab states of the Persian Gulf. This includes the China-brokered rapprochement with Saudi Arabia........

© The National Interest