Aerial view of an LNG tanker. The global LNG system depends on maritime chokepoints and concentrated infrastructure that can quickly become vulnerable during geopolitical crises. (Shutterstock/GreenOak)

The LNG Security Myth: How the Strait of Hormuz Exposes LNG’s Vulnerabilities

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The Iran war is exposing how global LNG markets depend on concentrated infrastructure, maritime chokepoints, and price-driven competition.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) has long been presented as the flexible counterpart to pipeline gas, capable of tapping multiple supply sources, avoiding transit countries’ risk, redirecting supplies to markets in need, and enhancing energy security. This was evident in 2011, when LNG cargoes were redirected to Japan following the Fukushima accident, and again in 2022, when significant additional LNG volumes flowed to Europe to replace dwindling Russian pipeline gas supplies. By contrast, oil has often been viewed as geopolitically exposed, particularly to maritime chokepoints. 

Yet, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz suggests this conventional wisdom is being challenged. LNG systems are not only exposed to maritime chokepoints but also structurally captive to them. The past two months have demonstrated that when the Strait of Hormuz is closed, LNG trade is unable to reroute and consequently stalls. Finally, the current crisis exposes the limits of LNG’s much-celebrated flexibility.

More Gas at Sea but Greater Supply Concentration

LNG is a growing pillar of global gas markets. Since 2000, global LNG trade has more than quadrupled, reaching almost 600 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2025. Over the same period, the number of LNG exporters has doubled, and most importantly, the number of LNG importing countries has almost quintupled. Meanwhile, LNG’s share in global gas consumption has increased 2.5 times, reaching 14 percent as of 2025. This may appear as a modest share of global gas consumption; however, disruptions to LNG flows are transmitted instantly across global markets to the growing number of LNG importers, both directly through physical supply losses and indirectly through the redirection of LNG flows and sharp price movements in spot-dependent markets, particularly in Europe.

The dependence of global LNG flows on the Strait of Hormuz is expected to increase in the medium term, in line with the planned near doubling of LNG export capacity in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). However, the conflict has delayed construction of new LNG trains and damaged two LNG trains at Ras Laffan—leaving them offline for several years. 

Still, the Strait of........

© The National Interest