Is Vladimir Putin Looking for an Exit in Ukraine?

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As Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine enters its fifth year, how seriously is the Kremlin taking the high-stakes trilateral negotiations in Geneva?

February 22, 2026: Is Putin Looking for an Exit?

On Russian state television, the third round of trilateral negotiations in Geneva was presented as a controlled exercise in statesmanship, with Vladimir Putin personally chairing Security Council meetings to oversee the quest for peace. The weekly news program Vesti Nedeli highlighted the talks as a positive effort toward ending the war (on Russian terms). The optics on the ground, however, told a more pessimistic story: negotiations that lasted six hours on the first day were abruptly truncated to just two hours on the second. Moscow’s lead negotiator Vladimir Medinsky characterized the sessions as “very difficult”: a diplomatic euphemism for a near-breakdown. To manage domestic expectations, state media has continued its derogatory framing of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as a corrupt and illegitimate leader hungry to sabotage the talks and extend the war.

More ominously, the Kremlin appears eager to shutter the remaining windows of Russia’s digital world. Telegram, once celebrated as a homegrown technological triumph, is being recast as a dangerous conduit for moral subversion, terrorism, and Ukrainian military coordination. By branding the platform as a direct threat to national security and stability, the Kremlin is laying the groundwork for a transition to the state-monitored “MAX” app, ensuring greater control over what Russians say and do.

Amidst the appalling human costs of the war (now estimated at 30,000 monthly casualties), Sunday’s Vesti Nedeli offered some domestic reassurance by highlighting Putin’s “national projects.” One segment discussed a 500-billion-ruble modernization of the healthcare system, showcasing pristine new medical centers and high-tech equipment. While these improvements are tangible, their placement alongside battlefield reports serves as a classic “bread and circuses” maneuver, projecting an air of normalcy while the front lines remain static.

In the latest episode of Russia Decoded, hosts Andy Kuchins and Chris Monday unpack how Vladimir Putin and Russian elites understand the world, and how they seek to influence it. Listen now on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

About the Speakers: Andy Kuchins and Chris Monday

Andrew C. Kuchins is currently a senior fellow at the Center for the National Interest and an adjunct professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. He has served as President of the American University of Central Asia and the Director of the Carnegie Moscow Center as well as the Russia and Eurasia Programs at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He is the author or editor of 7 books and published columns for The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, The Washington Post, and many other media outlets.

Chris Monday is an associate professor of economics at Dongseo University in Busan, South Korea.

Image: Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin, September 2, 2025 (Kremlin photo viaWikimedia Commons).

© The National Interest