Maria Rost Rublee

Policymakers in the Asia-Pacific are already scrambling to keep up with the impacts of the new Donald Trump administration in the U.S. — from tariff disputes to cuts in critical foreign aid. Now, a more serious crisis lurks around the corner: the possibility of the United States resuming nuclear testing.

If Washington breaks its 30-year moratorium on nuclear testing, it will generate significant policy dilemmas for many states in the region. Given their alliances and partnerships with the United States, condemning nuclear testing will take courage and a willingness to face blowback from the Trump administration. However, failing to respond to new nuclear testing is also risky, given the likelihood of negative domestic sentiment. Moreover, a resumption of nuclear testing would deal a profound blow not only to the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), but also the larger nuclear nonproliferation regime, both of which most countries in the region strongly support. In addition, U.S. nuclear testing will open the door to other states, including China, Russia and North Korea, to follow suit.

A real possibility

How likely is it that the United States will resume nuclear testing? Numerous signs indicate that it is a real possibility. During Trump's first term, the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review noted that the United States must remain ready to conduct nuclear tests, and numerous Trump officials advocated a return to nuclear testing, including national security advisers John Bolton........

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