Lee Jong-eun

While campaigning for reelection in 2024, Donald Trump publicly declared his intention to end the Russia-Ukraine war, boasting that he could resolve the conflict within “24 hours” of taking office. Though he did not achieve this specific timeline, Trump has taken quick action since returning to the presidency to initiate negotiations with Russia. On Feb. 12, Trump announced that he had spoken with Russian leader Vladimir Putin by phone and would begin diplomatic talks to broker a ceasefire in Ukraine. A week later, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Adviser Mike Waltz traveled to Saudi Arabia to meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and other Russian officials.

The rest of the world, especially Europe and Ukraine, is watching U.S.-Russia negotiations with apprehension. Will Trump be able to persuade Putin to suspend the war? What concessions might he impose on Ukraine and Europe in return? More pessimistic analysts fear that Trump could abandon Europe and Ukraine in pursuit of a quick settlement with Russia. Trump may endorse Russia’s annexation of Ukraine’s territory that it currently occupies while rejecting postwar security reassurances for Ukraine. As Trump’s defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, warned at the Munich Security Conference this month, the Trump administration may also carry out its threat to drastically reduce support for the NATO alliance, leaving Europe’s security vulnerable to Russia.

Other analysts remain hopeful that Trump’s self-interest could incentivize his administration to pursue a balanced deal with Russia. As demonstrated during the talks between........

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