Ian Bremmer

NEW YORK – Donald Trump’s return to the White House has raised fears that the global energy transition will be thrown into reverse. The U.S. president has vowed to “drill, baby, drill,” roll back environmental regulations, and end the “green new scam.” As Earth continues to warm – last month was the hottest January on record, and 2024 was the first year with global average temperatures exceeding 1.5 Celsius degree above pre-industrial levels – many worry that we are about to witness a worldwide slowdown in the shift away from fossil fuels.

But Trump couldn’t kill the green transition during his first term, and he can’t kill it this time, either. The reason is simple: Technological breakthroughs, steep learning curves, and plummeting costs have made clean energy cheaper than fossil fuels in most places. Moreover, the revolution was just getting started in 2017, whereas now it has reached escape velocity. Its momentum is being driven not by politics or government intervention, but by markets. The fact that deep-red (Republican-leaning) Texas leads the United States in renewables deployment is a case in point. Politics will no longer hold back the American energy transition.

This is not to say that politics won’t slow the U.S. transition. The Trump administration is already taking steps to loosen environmental and climate regulations, promote domestic oil and gas production, support gas-fired power plants, and........

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