Long before Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi drew Beijing’s ire by stating the obvious — that a Chinese military assault on Taiwan could be seen as an existential threat to Japan under the 1951 U.S.-Japan security agreement — Washington and its allies had been weighing the risks of just such an assault and China’s overall military capabilities.

Toward that goal, the U.S. Department of Defense’s annual Report to Congress on Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China is among the most comprehensive and detailed assessments of China’s military posture. The 2025 report, released in December, states clearly that, for a quarter century, “these reports have chronicled the development of China’s military capabilities and strategy.”

While the Trump administration’s new report contains several noteworthy findings, one assessment has drawn particular attention: the conclusion that China deployed the DF-27 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) armed with a conventional (rather than nuclear) warhead in 2024. As discussed below, the deployment of the DF-27 appears to significantly complement China’s anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) posture, but this might have paradoxical effects on the credibility of U.S. extended deterrence.

© The Japan Times