In less than a month, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales could each have a nationalist first minister. The current Labour first minister of Wales, Eluned Morgan, warns this heralds a “real possibility” of the UK breaking up. It seems more likely to cause frustration at the shortcomings of devolution.

Elections will be held to the Scottish parliament and the Welsh assembly on May 7th. The latest YouGov poll shows Plaid Cymru will be the largest party in Wales for the first time, and by some margin, although just short of an outright majority. The same source shows the Scottish National Party, a minority administration since 2016, returning with a two-seat majority. This will be accompanied by significant growth for the pro-independence Scottish Greens. Polls also show Sinn Féin remaining the largest party at Stormont in the Assembly election next year.

The SNP says winning a majority of seats in the Scottish parliament would be a mandate for another independence referendum. Plaid Cymru says the election in Wales is “not about independence” and it will not seek a referendum in its first term in office, but it does want a national commission and a White Paper on independence – in other words, a plan for the next term. Sinn Féin says it wants a Border poll by the end of the decade.

So referendums would certainly move up the agenda around the UK. However, nationalists are still short of a 50 per cent voting majority on any of the polling numbers.

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YouGov puts the SNP and Scottish Greens on around 44 per cent combined and Plaid Cymru on 33 per cent. The total nationalist vote in the last Stormont election was 40 per cent. There are no impending mandates for winnable referendums, so the British government sees no need to consider them, as it has already made clear. Nationalism is stuck. The triumph of securing three first ministers would soon prove hollow.

Unionism is faring no better under devolution, whether in government or opposition. Labour has run Wales for 27 years, becoming so complacent it has driven people towards Plaid Cymru, a previously unthinkable outcome. The SNP has governed Scotland for the past 19 years. Despite its poor record, unionist parties have been unable to dislodge it. Unionism in Northern Ireland has lost its majority, probably forever, a failure that cannot be solely excused by demographics.

The UK’s experience with devolution is that it polarises politics into nationalist and unionist blocs, then delivers for neither.

Tam Dalyell, a Scottish Labour MP, famously warned devolution would be “a motorway to independence with no off-ramp”. It has turned out to be more of a dual-carriageway to nowhere.

A Plaid Cymru government could be the final proof. Only the Greens are prepared to form a coalition with it, so a minority administration in a factious assembly appears inevitable.

There is no serious movement to roll back devolution in the UK, let alone abolish it. On the contrary, all the main Westminster parties want to extend it to England. But mounting dissatisfaction with its structure and effectiveness could lead to serious discussion on reform. This is a difficult debate to have in a calm and balanced manner. Everyone distrusts each other’s motivations, constitutional passions are far more intense in Scotland than in Wales and devolution in Northern Ireland is uniquely set by an international treaty.

Labour’s big idea for reform appears to be replacing the House of Lords with a chamber of the nations and regions. This is bound to leave nationalists unimpressed – Irish nationalists in particular.

The previous Conservative government considered Canadian-style legislation to make independence more difficult, for example by requiring a minimum 25-year gap between referendums and a supermajority of 60 per cent for one to pass. The idea was to park the constitutional question for a generation and let “normal” politics blossom.

In practice, this would have enraged nationalists everywhere, plus unionists in Northern Ireland, who would have been told it was impossible there due to the Belfast Agreement.

Sinn Féin, the SNP and Plaid Cymru have been discussing how to co-operate to extract more money and powers from Westminster. They might consider this a reform of devolution. English voters might consider it an outrage; nationalist cynics might see that as a bonus.

Reforming devolution could fall to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK. It is topping the polls and is expected to be the big winner in English council elections, also held on May 7th.

Nationalists and others believe a Farage-led government in London would antagonise more people into supporting independence. Yet Reform is also polling extremely well in Scotland and Wales, second only to the SNP and Plaid Cymru. It has simply increased the polarisation of the same old devolutionary deadlock.

© The Irish Times