On Tuesday the United States will hold a referendum on Donald Trump. The Republican Party has become the Trump Party, which means the careers of dozens of Republican politicians are tethered to him. The party of Abraham Lincoln depends on a man cut from very different clobber. If the polls are to be believed, “The Donald” is over, with ratings the lowest ever for a sitting president heading into the midterms. Across a whole host of economic and foreign policy matrices, Trump’s support is dwindling.

If he loses, US politics could become even more divided, which is almost impossible to imagine. The divisions will be most acute within the Republican Party, which would undergo its second civil war in a decade. The first war was fought to get Trump in; the next one will be fought to get him out.

No one said this was going to end well. Indeed, the party’s civil war is unlikely to end when Trump leaves office. His influence is likely to mutate into something possibly even more divisive as he tries to make sure that his chosen Make America Great Again (Maga) successor maintains his legacy and keeps his sons out of jail.

Meanwhile, the US will be left with the largest debt burden in its history, which is being added to every year with a huge budget deficit funded by issuing yet more debt. While not quite a Ponzi scheme, the US is moving in the Ponzi direction. By paying the interest on the debt by raising yet more debt, even Washington is vulnerable. What happens to the dollar if the foreigners who are buying this US debt, and in the process help keep the dollar pre-eminent, decide to cut their positions before those positions become........

© The Irish Times