This year is looking full of economic danger for US president Donald Trump. Despite what he says, his tariff agenda has been seriously upended. The US economy is not delivering for voters and consumer sentiment is at its lowest level in more than a decade. And the markets are wobbly, with investors now starting to look for reasons to sell, rather than ones to buy. And now the weekend attack on Iran will test investor nerves further

Trump’s economic agenda has been contradictory and dangerous from day one – but despite this the economy has ticked along and share prices have headed generally higher. He will have hoped to turbocharge the economy into the midterms, with households due to get a tax refund and a crucial and under-discussed factor – a weak US dollar – helping to boost exports.

The political need to run the economy “hot” explains his pressure on the US Federal Reserve Board, its central bank, to cut interest rates. This could help borrowers – and lower the value of the US dollar further. He will hope that it can also support the US stock market, which he seems to see as a key marker.

It is sugar-rush economics, looking for a quick fix with no regard to the longer-term consequences. And of course it has a cost, threatening to boost inflation, damage confidence in US assets and lead to a nasty economic hangover. But Trump will not care if the Republicans can get through the midterms in reasonable shape.

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