As DUP and Sinn Féin lose their shine in government, can UUP and SDLP turn good polls to election success?
AS a political enthusiast, I’m captivated by opinion polls.
They provide a snapshot of the electorate’s current mindset, but their accuracy can be influenced by events, personnel changes, tragedies, or morale boosts.
While polls aren’t definitive, a series of them can reveal the trajectory of various political parties’ fortunes.
However, polls like those appearing frequently in the Republic’s Sunday media, so close after a new government formation and so far from the next election, seem somewhat pointless.
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Tom Kelly: As DUP and Sinn Féin lose their shine, can UUP and SDLP capitalise?
Regardless of your feelings towards them, opinion polls will keep party number-crunchers, academic psephologists and political commentators analysing potential outcomes for the years and months between actual elections.
A common reaction to unfavourable poll results is for parties receiving negative feedback to dismiss them, declaring: “There’s only one poll that counts, and that’s the ballot box.”
Those performing well will, with false modesty, claim: “It’s a sign people want change and are looking for parties like ours to deliver it.”
Inside, they’re glowing with warmth, as if they’ve just had a bowl of Ready Brek.
Recent LucidTalks polls suggest fairly accurately that the DUP are losing their grip on the top spot in unionism. Their slide to 15% will likely make the leadership nervous.
DUP leader Gavin Robinson (Liam McBurney/PA)In fairness, they’ve been on a downward spiral for some time, and what’s saving them are recognisable elected representatives and demographics, something........
