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As DUP and Sinn Féin lose their shine in government, can UUP and SDLP turn good polls to election success?

31 0
03.08.2026

AS a political enthusiast, I’m captivated by opinion polls.

They provide a snapshot of the electorate’s current mindset, but their accuracy can be influenced by events, personnel changes, tragedies, or morale boosts.

While polls aren’t definitive, a series of them can reveal the trajectory of various political parties’ fortunes.

However, polls like those appearing frequently in the Republic’s Sunday media, so close after a new government formation and so far from the next election, seem somewhat pointless.

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Regardless of your feelings towards them, opinion polls will keep party number-crunchers, academic psephologists and political commentators analysing potential outcomes for the years and months between actual elections.

A common reaction to unfavourable poll results is for parties receiving negative feedback to dismiss them, declaring: “There’s only one poll that counts, and that’s the ballot box.”

Those performing well will, with false modesty, claim: “It’s a sign people want change and are looking for parties like ours to deliver it.”

Inside, they’re glowing with warmth, as if they’ve just had a bowl of Ready Brek.

Recent LucidTalks polls suggest fairly accurately that the DUP are losing their grip on the top spot in unionism. Their slide to 15% will likely make the leadership nervous.

DUP leader Gavin Robinson (Liam McBurney/PA)

In fairness, they’ve been on a downward spiral for some time, and what’s saving them are recognisable elected representatives and demographics, something........

© The Irish News