THE latest LucidTalk poll has major implications for unionism, with the DUP falling three points to 15%, one point behind the UUP.

Sinn Féin is also on the slide, down 2 points to 22%.

Much commentary and online reaction has blamed this on the party disappointing its voters by supposedly letting the DUP walk over it on issues such as Casement Park.

That may be true to the extent voters believe it, but any such belief is largely mistaken.

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The DUP’s role in Casement is trivial and most of Sinn Fein’s other fiascos, on the A5 for example, are entirely self-inflicted.

There must be an extent to which both parties’ fates are tied by the unionist and nationalist electorates simply reacting to each other.

Sinn Féin and DUP assembly election results since the Good Friday Agreement have had a correlation coefficient of 0.8, on a scale where zero would mean no relationship and 1.0 would mean they always rose and fell exactly together.

By social science standards, 0.8 describes a law of the universe.

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An out-of-court “agreement” has been reached between Féile an Phobail and the Women’s Rights Network, confirming the festival will not host a women’s rights discussion but will discuss the possibility of hosting it in future years.

This avoids a legal action that would have rivalled the gay cake case for media attention, although other parallels with that case are misleading. WRN was threatening to sue over breach of contract, rather than discrimination.

If discrimination had entered its argument, the gay cake ruling might have worked against it.

The Supreme Court found the baker could discriminate against the cake provided they did not discriminate against the customer – in other words, they would not have baked the........

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