Beyond the pumps: How global conflict is redrawing Northern Ireland’s economic map
As we track the rising cost of fuel and energy, it’s worth remembering the far greater human price being paid elsewhere.
Families across the Middle East have lost loved ones, communities have been devastated, and many are living in fear day-to-day.
We all have fears, but not all are equal - while many of us are concerned about increased costs, it’s quite another thing to be worried for our basic survival.
Against that backdrop, it can feel uncomfortable to focus on the economic consequences of this conflict.
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Concerns about the cost of living or the cost of doing business may seem trivial by comparison, but there is no denying that the effects are being felt here at home.
Since February 28, this conflict has cast a shadow over most economies across the globe, which is evident in higher energy prices, fuel costs, and disruption of supply chains.
Both businesses and households in Northern Ireland are already feeling the strain.
It is however worth remembering that the wider UK economy is less vulnerable to energy shocks than was the case in the 1970s.
This is reflected in a lower dependence on oil and a more diversified energy mix, including renewables, which have strengthened its position.
Also, a degree of resilience has been built up in recent years.
Fuel prices have soared since the latest conflict in the Middle East. PICTURE: COLM LENAGHANWe have all learnt from crises such as the Covid pandemic and the energy shock following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But significant challenges remain - particularly here in Northern Ireland.
Across the UK, businesses face some of the highest industrial electricity prices in the developed world - around 60% higher than competitors in other advanced economies.
The Iran conflict did not create this problem, but it has exposed how urgent it is to address it.
In Northern Ireland, there is still much more to do to accelerate the shift away from home-heating oil.
The war with Iran continues to have direct consequences for oil and gas, but other, less discussed, critical resources also typically pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
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For example, we are seeing bottlenecks for supplies of helium used in semiconductors and laboratories, and ammonia for fertilisers.
CBI members, including firms here in Northern Ireland, are already warning of rising chemical and fertiliser costs that will feed through into food prices.
In fact, food prices are expected to rise by a further 9% by the end of this year. Combined with high energy costs, this leaves both the local and national economy particularly exposed.
But the answer cannot be short-term sticking plasters. National and local government have an important job to do - working with business on a serious plan to tackle the structural causes of high energy costs and strengthen long-term competitiveness.
That means accelerating renewable energy, removing bottlenecks in the planning system, reducing policy costs within electricity bills, and supporting investment in energy efficiency.
If the conflict persists, additional support may be needed. But policymakers should start with what they know works: acting quickly, targeting pressure points, and making better use of existing tools - such as HMRC’s ‘Time to Pay’, which allows businesses to spread tax bills over instalments.
That doesn’t mean reaching for the government’s chequebook every time there is a shock, because that just pushes the problem on to the next generation, instead government should respond with agility and innovation - drawing on proven approaches to manage crises without adding to the country’s fiscal burden.
We have seen that sometimes there is a temptation for government (and consumers) to blame business as prices rise, but that would be a mistake.
Pitting households against companies misses the point. Reducing the cost of doing business is essential to reducing the cost of living - the two are indelibly linked.
We must not forget that it is businesses that invest, create jobs and generate the revenues that fund our public services.
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It is unfortunate that we appear to be living in a time of repeated global shocks. But we must continue to rise to the challenges - as the old saying goes, smooth seas do not make for skilful sailors.
Energy prices have surged before and will no doubt do so again. This is a test for all of us - government, business, and households.
We must keep calm heads and ask ourselves - can we use the lessons of today and the recent past not just to weather this storm, but to build a stronger, more resilient economy for the future?
Angela McGowan (DARREN KIDD) Angela McGowan is director of CBI Northern Ireland