President Trump's push to shift tens of thousands of manufacturing jobs to the U.S. is raising concerns and costs for many American industries, and economists are expressing doubts about its long-term viability.

Some of Trump’s tariffs, which have targeted key manufacturing inputs such steel and aluminum, along with higher U.S. wage levels and a global decline in manufacturing jobs as a share of total employment are all working against Trump’s manufacturing push, and industry sentiment is beginning to wane.

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey released Tuesday by the New York Federal Reserve showed firms turning pessimistic about the economic outlook for the first time since 2022.

Expected business conditions in the survey have sunk since the beginning of the year, with sentiment dropping 20 points during the first week of April and more than 44 points over the last three months.

“Firms expect conditions to worsen in the months ahead, a level of pessimism that has only occurred a handful of times in the history of the survey,” New York Fed economists wrote.

Manufacturing activity across the U.S. contracted in March after expanding in January and February, as measured by the ISM purchasing managers’ index. The contraction resumes a more than two-year downward trend in the sector.

“Production levels in March showed a marked decrease for the first time in 2025, as order books remain weak and new orders continue to decline, causing head-count reductions and lack of capital investment,” Timothy Fiore, chair of ISM’s manufacturing survey committee, wrote in an analysis released earlier this month.

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