For decades, Taiwan operated under the assumption that if China invaded, the U.S. would intervene. However, that confidence is now waning.

Under President Trump, Washington’s commitment to Taiwan has grown increasingly unpredictable. The once-unthinkable question is now being openly debated in Taipei: Is Taiwan still indispensable to U.S. strategy, or is it becoming expendable?

Taiwan’s anxiety deepened when Trump froze military aid to Ukraine — an action many in Taiwan interpreted as a cautionary signal. If the U.S. could deprioritize Ukraine, what guarantees does Taiwan have? As one Taiwanese friend put it, “Unlike Ukraine, which still has Europe, we only have the United States. If Washington wavers, we are alone.”

While outright abandonment remains unlikely — such a move would embolden China and contradict Trump’s “America First” rhetoric — the real fear in Taipei is Washington’s failure to act decisively at a critical moment. Trump’s unpredictability has effectively replaced strategic ambiguity with strategic uncertainty, a far more dangerous proposition.

His transactional approach — questioning Taiwan’s defense spending while prioritizing an “America First” agenda — has made U.S. support feel conditional rather than guaranteed. Unlike Russia, which offers avenues for negotiation, China sees Taiwan as non-negotiable, complicating any potential resolution.

Should Beijing perceive weakness in Washington’s stance, it could escalate its coercive measures through economic pressure, cyberattacks or military provocations. Under Trump, these stakes are higher than ever, leaving Taiwan’s future in a precarious position.

Taiwan is confronted with a stark new reality: U.S. support is no longer a given. Although bipartisan consensus has traditionally ensured Taiwan’s strategic importance, Trump’s approach is eroding this foundation. Taiwan risks becoming less a........

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