In a country as polarized as the U.S., independents are a sort of electoral holy grail. Pundits, practitioners, and certainly candidates know that they can decide elections.

It is therefore puzzling that so much of the recent 100-days' coverage of the Trump administration focuses on President Trump's topline numbers in national public opinion polls. It might be more useful to look at polls of a state that actually cast their electoral college votes for the president and, within them, drill down among independents.

Trump won Ohio by 11 points in 2024. But the news among Ohio independents today is not especially good.

According to the latest Bowling Green State University-YouGov poll of 800 registered........

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