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Election handicapper moves 3 Senate races toward Democrats

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11.06.2026

Election handicapper moves 3 Senate races toward Democrats

A top election handicapper shifted a trio of Senate races toward Democrats, as the minority party looks to regain control of the upper chamber this November. 

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics shifted the Alaska race from leans Republican to toss-up, the North Carolina race from toss-up to leans Democratic and the Ohio race from leans Republican to toss-up.

All three seats are held by Republicans, with incumbent Sens. Dan Sullivan (Alaska) and Jon Husted (Ohio) vying for reelection, while there is an open race to succeed North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis (R), who is retiring.

Republicans hold a 53-47 edge in the chamber, with Democrats needing to flip four seats to retake the majority. In the event of 50-50 splits in the Senate, Vice President Vance serves as a tiebreaker, keeping the upper chamber in Republican hands.

With the latest shifts, four Senate races are toss-ups according to the crystal ball — Alaska, Ohio, Maine and Michigan — plus North Carolina predicted to go blue. Democrats........

© The Hill