Polls can mislead: Do your own homework before you vote

Headlines recently touted a new Siena Research Institute poll claiming that Zohran Mamdani, mayor of New York City, enjoys an approval rating of 69 percent.

I don’t believe that. Conversations that I have had with bodega owners, taxi drivers, construction workers and people in many other occupations lead to a different conclusion. New Yorkers cannot stand our smug young socialist mayor.  

Am I not talking to the right people? Do such surveys reliably reflect the mood of the electorate?

After big misses from several polls in recent weeks, people are wondering what to believe. Of course, survey failures are nothing new; President Trump has consistently outperformed his polling, causing many supporters to view the entire industry as suspect. 

For sure, polling can influence voters. If your candidate is crashing in the polls ahead of an election, you may decide it’s not worth voting — that the outcome is preordained and your vote won’t matter. Or, you may decide against donating to a campaign, not wanting to waste your money.

Remember that one month after his 2024 win, then President-elect Trump sued the Des Moines Register and its former pollster, J. Ann Selzer, for “brazen election interference” over a poll published just days before the election.  

Selzer’s Nov. 2 survey showed Democrat Kamala Harris winning reliably red Iowa by 3 to 4 points — a shocking outlier that received a lot of attention at a critical moment in the campaign. Just days later, Trump won Iowa by 13 points. Although Trump later dropped his lawsuit, many agreed that Selzer’s survey had been intended to shake his supporters’ confidence in a race he was quite clearly winning. She quit her job soon thereafter.

Since that 2024 race, the rise of prediction and betting platforms has upped the stakes. People placing bets on political races will have even........

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