Democrats on Tuesday scored a win in Wisconsin’s Supreme Court race, while Republicans held on to two seats in deep-red Florida districts, raising questions about what the results mean as both parties look ahead to next year’s midterms.

While off-year special elections don’t see the same turnout as a general election, Democrats say President Trump and Elon Musk are proving to be turnout machines for their liberal base. Some Republicans have brushed off the results, however, noting that their voters tend not to turn out in full force when Trump isn’t on the ballot.

Still, the results have given Democrats a much-needed shot in the arm as they look toward both the Virginia governor’s race in November and next year’s midterms, when historically the party in power loses seats in Congress.

“Republicans everywhere can no longer deny the toxicity of Trump 2.0,” Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin told reporters on Wednesday, predicting a possible “blue wave” in 2026.

Florida state Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried added that Tuesday’s results should “send shivers” down the spines of every Republican running in a district who won by 15 points.

But Republicans aren’t as convinced Tuesday’s results provide insight into next year’s midterms.

“I think what it shows is that unless you have a turnout comparable to a presidential election, the Republicans in Wisconsin are at a disadvantage,” said Mark Graul, a Republican strategist who was President George W. Bush’s Wisconsin director for his 2004 reelection.

Graul cautioned against reading too much into what the Wisconsin election results could mean for either party as a unique off-cycle spring election.

“If you look back in Wisconsin history, these April elections are almost never predictors of the future,” he said.

Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center of Politics, too, suggested of the Florida and Wisconsin elections that he didn’t “necessarily know if this is predictive........

© The Hill