Immigration is a growth strategy for the states that need it most

After another Independence Day of parades, flags and speeches about the American experiment, the harder question is whether the country still believes in one of the forces that helped build it: people coming here to build a better life.

That story is not only about America’s past. It is also about the country’s economic future.

Unfortunately, a recent wave of immigration restrictions, including fewer green cards awarded, travel bans from various countries, reduced refugee and asylum grants and others, has resulted in a drop in immigration. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, net international migration peaked at 2.7 million in 2024, fell to 1.3 million in 2025 and is projected to drop to 321,000 in 2026, which the bureau calls a historic decline.

Restrictions on immigration are based on several concerns. But a major justification is a perceived negative economic effect of immigration, particularly on state and local budgets.

Those concerns should not simply be dismissed. Any growing population creates demands on public services. But a recent study I coauthored suggests the claim that immigrants are simply a drain on state economies does not fit the evidence.

Using data for every U.S. state between 2008 and 2023, we find that a 1 percent increase in a state’s population from immigration is associated with a 1.5 percent increase in private sector GDP for the value of goods and services produced in the average state. That’s a larger percentage increase in income than in population.

The effect also varies dramatically by state. In our simulations, a 1........

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