Cornyn seeks a Texas miracle as Paxton pulls away

▪ Texas votes in key runoffs

▪ Trump defends Iran deal

▪ Clock ticking for GOP

▪ Pope Leo weighs in on AI

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Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R) will attempt today to do what most Republicans this year have been unable to: win a primary in the face of  President Trump’s opposition.

The four-term senator expressed confidence Sunday that he would prevail in his primary runoff against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, warning that his opponent would lose the seat to Democrat James Talarico.

But pollsters and betting markets are giving Cornyn long odds after Trump endorsed Paxton for the Senate seat last week.

“Ken Paxton was a GREAT Attorney General, probably the best in the Country. He was also very loyal to your favorite President, ME, as the Dumocrats played their ultimate game of Weaponization, and failed, BADLY!” Trump said in a post on Truth Social.

Cornyn put up impressive numbers in the March primary as he faced two right-wing opponents who argued he wasn’t sufficiently loyal to the president. The incumbent placed first with 42 percent of the vote, closely followed by Paxton.

But Cornyn was unable to win a majority, forcing Tuesday’s primary runoff against Paxton, a MAGA diehard. Trump reportedly weighed endorsing Cornyn, under intense pressure from Senate Republicans, who see the former GOP whip as a far better general election candidate.

Paxton’s edge widened over the past two weeks in the Decision Desk HQ polling average and shot up to 15 points as of Thursday, two days after Trump endorsed him. Betting markets Kalshi and Polymarket give Paxton greater than a 95 percent chance of becoming the Republican nominee.

Barring an election day miracle, Cornyn will become the latest example of Republican incumbents losing their primaries at the hands of their party leader.

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) failed to advance earlier this month to a runoff against two primary opponents who argued he wasn’t loyal enough to Trump. He only won about a quarter of the GOP primary electorate.

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) became the latest victim of the president’s yearslong campaign to force out his GOP detractors, as he lost his primary to Trump-backed former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein.

Cornyn argued during an interview with Chris Stirewalt on “The Hill Sunday” that his situation is different, portraying himself as a more reliable Trump ally.

Cassidy was politically haunted by his vote to convict Trump during his second impeachment trial over his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol attack. Massie has regularly been a contrarian within the House GOP conference, breaking with his party on key issues ranging from the Iran war to the Epstein files.

Cornyn’s vote in favor of former President Biden’s bipartisan gun safety law was a relatively rare major instance of bucking the conservative base.

But Cornyn also said in 2023 that the GOP should move on from Trump as its standard-bearer. And the president has since argued that Cornyn hasn’t fought “hard enough” to get the SAVE America Act, a key voting bill, passed.

Cornyn has portrayed Paxton as an ethical disaster during their monthslong primary fight. Asked Sunday if he’d support his rival in a general election, Cornyn deflected.

“Of course, people are seeking divisions among Republicans,” he said. “We’re having quite a robust family fight here in the primary.”

▪ The Hill: Races to watch in Texas’s primary runoffs.

▪ The Texas Tribune: Inside the final days of the runoff.

Andy Kim (D-N.J.) said he was pepper-sprayed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers as protesters gathered outside a detention facility in Newark. The center, Delaney Hall, has received scrutiny for more than a year for its conditions.

Massie teased a........

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