Handicapping the midterms: Why the GOP is trying to change the rules

Betting markets often outperform election forecasters. In 2024, when polls showed the presidential race was a toss-up, they had President Trump as the clear favorite.

This week, betting markets are giving Democrats about an 85 percent chance of gaining a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives in this year’s midterms, and an almost 50-50 shot at control of the U.S. Senate. 

They may well be right. Then again, as Yogi Berra has reminded us, “It ain’t over till it’s over.” History and current political fundamentals favor the Democrats, but that assumes the rules of the game remain stable — something we can no longer take for granted. 

In the 22 midterm elections between 1934 and 2018, the sitting president’s party lost an average of 28 seats in the House of Representatives and four in the Senate. The 2022 midterm was more favorable to Democrats than the norm — they lost only nine House seats and gained one seat in the Senate.

Typically, midterms serve as a referendum on the party in power. A president’s approval rating predicts the outcomes of congressional races. Shifts away from the president’s party tend to increase as Election Day approaches.

About 55 percent of Americans disapprove of the job President Trump is doing. He gets high marks on securing the southern border, but respondents favor Democrats by large margins on affordability, helping the middle class, health care and vaccines.  Fifty-six percent believe the country is on the wrong track. Fifty-seven percent think ICE’s approach to immigration enforcement has hurt the country. Sixty-one percent oppose the war against Iran, far below initial support for any other armed conflict in 80 years.

These numbers reflect massive defections by independent voters, who now represent 45 percent of the electorate — a record........

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