Ukraine’s winning strategy against Russia: attrition 

Ukraine is winning the war against Russia through a strategy of attrition.

That statement may come as a surprise. Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 the assumption has been that attrition warfare in the conflict would undoubtedly favor Russia. Russia has a population three times as great, and President Vladimir Putin — and Russian society more widely — have demonstrated a tolerance for huge personnel losses to seize limited amounts of territory in Ukraine.

But recent reporting and analyses suggest that the tide has turned in Ukraine’s favor. Russia’s war economy is going underwater. Ukraine continues to strike industrial targets deep inside Russia with its long-range drones. The recent Russian declaration of emergency in Crimea due to Ukrainian strikes against logistics supply lines shows the increasingly precarious position Russia is now in. Importantly, there are very real signs of unrest within parts of the population and the Russian oligarchy.

On the battlefield, “attrition” has become a dirty word in warfighting today. Modern militaries aim to destroy the adversary’s military forces, creating leverage for a favorable political outcome. The German Army’s speedy victory against France in 1940, when it outmaneuvered French defensive formations and seized Paris and political control of half of France, is an example. Similarly, in several Napoleonic battles, the elimination of the adversary army forced a political settlement favorable to France.

But annihilating the adversary’s military forces doesn’t always lead to a positive political outcome. In the American invasion of Iraq in the spring of 2003, the U.S. military destroyed the Iraqi Army on the ground — and what was left........

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