How the midterms could impact US-Mexico relations

Mexico is paying close attention to the U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 3. A change in control of Congress would not put a Democrat in the White House or end the pressures on Mexico over trade, migration and security. It would, however, change who can demand answers, control hearings and shape the terms of any lasting agreement. For a country accustomed to dealing directly with the U.S. executive branch, that would be a consequential shift. 

Democrats have a plausible path to the House, while the Senate remains uncertain. A Democratic House could summon officials, investigate decisions and write spending bills. A Senate victory would give the party more leverage over legislation and appointments. The White House would still direct U.S. negotiations through January 2029, even as the next presidential race begins to shape political incentives. 

The first test will be the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. At the July joint review, Washington declined to extend the agreement in its current form. The agreement remains in force, with annual reviews ahead unless the three governments agree to extend it.

Meanwhile, the U.S. and Mexican governments are trying to reach a bilateral understanding before the election. Mexico wants relief from U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum and automobiles; Washington is pressing for changes that benefit American producers and narrow its trade deficit.

An announcement before November could resolve some disputes but would leave essential questions unanswered. Would Canada be brought back into a durable trilateral arrangement? Which concessions can the White House deliver, and which changes would require Congress to amend U.S. law? Those questions would land on Capitol Hill in January.

The House Ways and Means Committee would be the place to start. Its Democrats........

© The Hill