Republicans are sinking, but Democrats aren’t rising

The clearest signal yet about the 2026 midterms may not be coming from national polling, but from Virginia.

In a significant rebuke to Republican redistricting efforts, Old Dominion voters just passed a new map that should flip four House seats to Democrats, undercutting what had been viewed as a key structural advantage for Republicans heading into November.

As we have described in the past, that caused the nonpartisan forecaster Sabato’s Crystal Ball to predict 217 seats leaning Democrat, 205 leaning Republican and 13 tossups.  

This is the latest example of Trump’s midterm gambit backfiring and an early sign that even aggressive attempts to shape the electoral playing field may not be enough to overcome the political headwinds facing Republicans. 

At the same time, those headwinds are becoming increasingly evident to Republicans themselves. Indeed, Senate Republicans may have just tipped their hand about their confidence – or lack thereof. In recent days, several Republican senators have urged President Trump to make any pending Cabinet shakeups immediately, not-so-subtly pointing to growing uncertainty about their narrow Senate majority. 

And the Republicans’ concern is well-founded. According to RealClearPolitics, Trump’s 41 percent approval rating — 17.5 points underwater — is at record lows. Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by 6 points. Meanwhile, only 34 percent of Americans feel the country is heading in the “right direction.”

Moreover, on the economy, often the decisive issue, a remarkable 47 percent of Americans describe the economy as “poor,” while Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index has fallen to minus-38, the lowest reading since November 2023.  

Typically, partisan attitudes color these........

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