What to know about the crowded House race to replace Greene in Georgia

Over a dozen candidates are vying to replace former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), the President Trump loyalist turned critic, in a Tuesday special election.

Trump has endorsed Republican Clay Fuller, a district attorney for the Lookout Mountain Judicial Circuit, in the heated race where all candidates, regardless of party, are running on one ballot.

The GOP is bracing for an April runoff against Democrat Shawn Harris, a retired brigadier general and cattle producer, as one candidate is unlikely to win half of the vote outright Tuesday due to the crowded field.

But Tuesday’s packed race, which includes Republican contenders such as former state Sen. Colton Moore, businessman Brian Stover and former 14th District GOP chair Jim Tully, is also poised to test the strength of the president’ support.

Here’s what to know about the jam-packed pursuit to replace Greene.

Crowded GOP field tests Trump’s power over party 

Twelve Republicans are running for Georgia’s 14th Congressional District, which encompasses the northwestern corner of the state.  

The president endorsed Fuller last month, writing in a post on Truth Social that, “As your next Congressman, Clay will fight tirelessly to Grow the Economy, Cut Taxes and Regulations, Promote MADE IN THE U.S.A., Unleash American Energy DOMINANCE, Keep our Border SECURE, Stop Migrant Crime, Safeguard our Elections, Champion School Choice, and Defend our always under siege Second Amendment.” 

Trump also made an appearance in the district last month with Fuller along with other Georgia Republicans, focusing much of his speech on tariffs.  

Though the president’s backing is highly coveted among Republicans, his endorsement hasn’t always carried enough weight to win consequential GOP primaries in the state.

In 2022, his endorsed pick, former football star Herschel Walker won the GOP primary to run against Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.), but Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) defeated the Trump-backed candidate, U.S. ambassador to China David Perdue, in the Republican gubernatorial contest that same year.  

Trump’s picks for attorney general and secretary of state — John Gordon and former Rep. Jody Hice (R-Ga.) — also both lost to GOP incumbents Chris Carr and Brad Raffensperger in 2022.  

Moore, one of the Republicans running for Greene’s former seat, is styling himself as a Trump-aligned candidate, with his campaign website reading “Trump’s #1 Defender for Georgia’s 14th Congressional District” and could also nab a spot in the runoff.  

The former state senator, who was temporarily blocked from the state’s lower chamber over critical remarks about a former state House Speaker, was arrested last year when he attempted to enter the state House during Kemp’s state of the state address.  

Greene looms large without endorsement 

Greene, the conservative firebrand who resigned from Congress amid a public riff with Trump, has notably not weighed in on the special election — a deliberate move she explained in a social media post last fall.

“Looking ahead towards the Special Election for my Congressional seat, I will not be endorsing anyone out of respect to my district,” she wrote on the social media plaform X in November.  

“I truly support the wonderful people of Georgia 14 and want them to pick their Representative,” she continued. “So anyone claiming they have my endorsement would not be telling the truth.”

Yet, her presence has loomed large in the race. During a candidate forum last month, one of the moderators asked the contenders if their approach to representing the district mirror that of the Republican firebrand. 

Moore said he had “great respect” for Greene during the forum.  

“When I say I have respect for her, I say I have respect for her intuition early on when she would challenge [Rep.] Nancy Pelosi [(D-Calif.)] as Speaker,” Moore said. “When she got stripped of all of her [committees], she still represented the people of northwest Georgia by objecting, saving Americans billions of dollars.” 

Businessman Eric Cunningham called Greene “effective” during the forum but suggested he would have served the district differently, saying “I’m not trying to make a name for myself.” 

Competitive race expected to head to runoff 

The race is all but expected to head into an April 7 runoff given the crowded competition. One candidate would need to win at least half of the vote outright Tuesday to avoid a runoff.

Observers expect Democrat Shawn Harris to advance to the runoff alongside one of the Republican candidates in the solid red congressional district.

But it’s possible that Harris could place first in Tuesday’s contest, with the dozens of GOP contenders splitting up the Republican vote as Democrats largely consolidate around Harris.

Democrats look to maintain overperformance streak

Democrats face an extremely difficult climb in flipping Greene’s district — which went for Trump by close to 37 points, according to The Downballot. But the party has made inroads in the state since Trump was last on the ballot.

This past December, Democrats, in a major upset, flipped a state House seat in northeast Georgia where Trump won by 12 points in the last election. And, in November, the party picked up two seats on the Georgia Public Service Commission, sending shockwaves through state political circles.

Nationally, Democratic overperformance in a handful of contests over the last several months, including an Arkansas’ state House race, a House special election in Tennessee as well as the New Jersey and Virginia governor races, has boosted momentum with midterm season in full swing.

Still, Republicans are likely to coalesce around whichever GOP candidate emerges Tuesday as the victor headed to the expected runoff.

The contest, however, will offer GOP strategists and candidates to gauge how their base performs in Republican counties — and any clues of discontent heading into the November general election.

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