7 races to watch in Texas, North Carolina as 2026 primary elections kick off

The 2026 primary cycle officially kicks off Tuesday, with Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas hosting the first round of contests that will shape several consequential elections this year.

In Texas, Sen. John Cornyn is fighting for his political life in a heated Senate GOP primary against state Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt, while Democratic rising stars Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico battle it out for their party’s nod. 

Several other Texas lawmakers are also facing off in fiery primaries. Democratic Reps. Al Green and Christian Menefee will duke it out in the 18th Congressional District, as Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales seeks to hang on to his seat against an influencer challenger in the 23rd Congressional District amid affair allegations.

Meanwhile, North Carolina voters are poised to finalize the long-awaited Senate match-up between former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley and former Gov. Roy Cooper (D).

Here are the seven races to watch in the first primaries of 2026.

Texas Senate primaries

Cornyn is facing his toughest reelection bid yet as he competes against Paxton and Hunt for a fifth term in the Senate. The incumbent is expected to head into a May runoff against Paxton as candidates need at least half the vote to win outright on Tuesday. 

The GOP contest has turned increasingly nasty, with Cornyn and his allies warning that a Paxton victory could result in Republicans’ losing the Senate seat in November over the attorney general’s past scandals. Paxton, meanwhile, has called Cornyn a “RINO,” or “Republican in name only,” and questioned his conservative bona fides. 

A polling average compiled by Decision Desk HQ shows Paxton leading the pack with 39 percent support, followed by Cornyn with 35 percent and Hunt with 17 percent.  

To the chagrin of the candidates, President Trump has notably avoided wading into the race —even as he visited the Lone Star State just days before Tuesday’s primary.

On the Democratic side, Crockett and Talarico are battling it out for the party’s nomination. Former Vice President Kamala Harris announced a last-minute endorsement for Crockett, and Republicans are reportedly elevating the congresswoman in the primary as they see her as the easiest candidate to beat in November.  

A polling average of Texas Senate Democratic surveys from Decision Desk HQ shows the two essentially tied — with Crockett at close to 47 percent support and Talarico at 46 percent.  

North Carolina Senate primaries

Democrats see the Tar Heel State as a prime pickup opportunity for the party, with Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) forgoing reelection. Cooper is expected to get the party’s nod, while the GOP is likely to pick Whatley, an ally of the president.

Democrats were already hopeful about their chances of picking up this seat ahead of Tillis’s retirement, but Cooper’s popularity statewide has further solidified their confidence.

A polling average of North Carolina Senate surveys compiled by Decision Desk HQ shows Cooper ahead at 48 percent support and Whatley trailing at 37 percent, though that margin is likely to narrow as November draws near.  

Texas’s 23rd Congressional District GOP primary

Gonzales’s political fate is far from certain after the San Antonio Express-News reported last month that the congressman had an affair with a former staffer. Last year, that aide, Regina Santos-Aviles, died by suicide after lighting herself on fire.  

Gonzales has denied the allegations and any wrongdoing.  

The controversy swirling around Gonzales, coupled with calls from some of his GOP colleagues to resign from Congress, has created an opening for gun rights YouTuber Brandon Herrera to possibly win the GOP primary for Texas’s 23rd Congressional District.

Texas’s 18th Congressional District Democratic primary

The Democratic contest for the Houston-based 18th Congressional District is pitting two incumbents against each other in what will offer one of the first referendums on age and generational change of this election cycle.

Green, 78, is facing off against the newly elected Menefee, 37, after Texas Republicans’ redistricting efforts last year pitted the two in an awkward member-on-member match-up. Green currently represents the 9th Congressional District.

Polling suggests that Menefee is poised to win on Tuesday, which would make him the heavy favorite to hang on to his seat in November.

North Carolina’s 4th Congressional District Democratic primary

Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-N.C.), 69, is once again facing off against progressive Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam, 32, where the issue of generational change has also become a focal point.

Foushee and Allam first ran against each other in 2022, with Foushee placing first at 46 percent support and Allam at about 37 percent support in the primary.  But Allam is challenging Foushee again, arguing the incumbent isn’t doing enough to stand up to the Trump administration.  

“To have our representative solely just put out a tweet or a strongly worded letter, when so many families were hurting, I couldn’t idly sit by and … look at my residents in good faith and say, ‘Well, you have to wait three years for help,’” Allam said. 

Allam is backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and the Working Families Party, while Foushee, a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, boasts support from Cooper and North Carolina Gov. Josh Stein (D).

Texas Attorney General GOP primary

With Paxton leaving his seat to run for Senate, his vacancy has set off a contested primary. Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) and state Sen. Mayes Middleton (R) are seen as the front-runners in the race. 

Roy has been endorsed by Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas). Paxton’s endorsed candidate, former Justice Department official Aaron Reitz, has been trailing in recent polling.

A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project survey released last week showed Roy narrowly leading Middleton, at 40 percent and 38 percent support, respectively. But, because the polling was within the survey’s 5.73-point margin of error, the two are effectively tied.  

It is possible this race could result in a runoff.

Texas 2nd Congressional District GOP primary

Rep. Dan Crenshaw (Texas) is fighting to keep his seat in the 2nd Congressional District as one of the rare Republicans without a Trump endorsement. He’s facing off against state Rep. Steve Toth and several other GOP candidates in Tuesday’s primary.

Toth, who is backed by Cruz, has accused Crenshaw of being insufficiently conservative. In turn, Crenshaw’s campaign has sought to tie the incumbent more closely to the president.  

“I’m out there defending Trump in places where Republicans are too scared to go,” Crenshaw told The New York Times in an interview last week. 

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