Vance, Rubio jammed into high-stakes horse race for Trump’s favor

When President Trump gave his first press conference since the start of the Iran war, he brushed past Vice President Vance, instead lavishing praise on Secretary of State Marco Rubio. 

“Marco Rubio is doing a great job. I think he’s going to go down as the greatest secretary of State in history,” Trump told reporters Monday. “He’s been successful no matter where he’s been.”

When asked whether he and Vance, known for imposing foreign wars and entanglements, disagreed on any points related to the conflict, Trump only offered: “He’s philosophically a little different from me.” 

Over the course of the rest of the roughly 30-minute press conference, he never mentioned Vance again directly by name. 

The moment reflected the clearest sign yet of the internal horse race that is playing out in Trump’s orbit over who will succeed him.

Vance and Rubio, by just about every estimate, are the two leading contenders.

Trump’s glowing remarks about his secretary of State created an opening of sorts for Rubio on the heels of what the president considers two successful military missions in Venezuela and Iran. Rubio also got a shot of momentum after a well-received speech at the Munich Security Conference.

But it’s far from clear whether Trump has a real favorite between the two.

“Trump knows this is playing in the backdrop, and he’s struggling with it,” said one Republican fundraiser of the debate on who might succeed Trump atop the GOP and MAGA. “That’s why he keeps asking people what they’re thinking.” 

NBC reported earlier this week that in the hours before the U.S. joined Israel in the military attack in Iran, Trump hosted a room full of top administration officials and donors at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Fla.

During the evening, he posed a “pressing question” to attendees: “Marco or JD?” 

One attendee told the outlet the room was largely in favor of Rubio. But another disputed that characterization and said the room was split. 

A separate source familiar with the gathering told The Hill that the sentiment in the room skewed more moderate and favored Rubio. 

Some political observers say Trump relishes the political intrigue around the Vance-Rubio question.

“It’s very Trump to constantly do a pulse check on how folks feel about Marco versus Vance. That is very much in the president’s DNA, to get a sense of where donors are and politicos and even folks in the media,” GOP strategist Brian Seitchik said.

“The president is always evaluating and comparing, and he’s well aware also that, by nature, those types of questions generate competition, which anyone who’s watched ‘The Apprentice’ knows he values,” said Seitchik, who worked on Trump’s 2016 and 2020 campaigns. 

White House communications director Steven Cheung shrugged off reports that Trump has been pitting the two officials against each other, hailing the president’s “all-star team.”

“No amount of crazed media speculation about Vice President Vance and Secretary Rubio will deter this Administration’s mission of fighting for the American people,” Cheung said.

Trump’s decisions on Iran could shape a GOP primary in 2028, and there are risks related to the war for any GOP candidate who might run for president then.

Rubio came under criticism last week after remarks he made appeared to suggest the U.S. joined attacks on Iran in part because Israel was going to do so regardless of Trump’s decision, and that it needed to strike first before Iran counterattacked. That angered MAGA proponents wary of the U.S. being dragged into a war by Israel.

It’s possible it will benefit Vance in 2028 if he’s seen as a brake on those who want to push a more aggressive foreign policy in the Middle East, though there would also be clear dangers to anyone in Trump World who is seen as not backing the president’s decision.

“The things he’s doing now, these are not popular, win-the-midterms moves,” the fundraiser said of the Iran war. 

New Hampshire Republican strategist Jim Merrill, who was the senior adviser for Rubio’s presidential campaign in the state, said Trump appears to have “enormous admiration” for both men.

Vance, who was once a “never-Trump guy,” dismissed speculation in November about a rivalry with Rubio, and last month called Rubio his “closest friend” in the administration. 

Rubio, who ran against Trump in 2016 for the White House and was once highly critical of his current boss, told Vanity Fair in December that he would be “one of the first people to support” Vance if the vice president eventually ran for the White House. 

Merrill said it’s “natural” for the president to be starting 2028 conversations.

Trump is “at the point in his political life where he’s beginning to think about his legacy, where he’s thinking about what comes next,” he said. 

Vance remains the favorite.

The vice president has long been seen as the heir apparent to Trump. One Trump ally who knows all three men and is familiar with the internal dynamics said “the entire apparatus is lined up behind JD.”

“That doesn’t mean it won’t change if Trump has his say but that’s how it is,” the ally said. 

Still, Rubio’s stock has risen as the U.S. makes moves on the international stage.

In an average of polls compiled by Race to the WH testing a potential 2028 GOP primary, Rubio has climbed from single digits at the start of Trump’s second term to roughly 13 percent support this month. That puts him in third place, behind Donald Trump Jr. at 14 percent and Vance at 46 percent. 

It’s Vance’s “nomination to lose at this juncture,” Merrill said, but he’s “not surprised” that people are taking note of Rubio. “Let’s see how things shake out over these next few months, but I think Republicans are fortunate to have two high-quality, skilled men like Vance and Rubio as options.”

Polls can change quickly, especially if a candidate falls in or out of favor with Trump.

A longtime Rubio ally put it this way: ”Obviously Trump can shake it up if he signals it’s [an] open [primary].”

“Either of them could fall out of favor with Trump or with the MAGA base,” said Jason Cabel Roe, the national media spokesperson for Rubio’s 2016 presidential campaign. “People’s stock: one day it’s up and one day it’s down.” 

Roe said Trump posing the Rubio-Vance question makes him seem like “a lame duck sooner,” but it “communicates that he thinks very well of both of them. 

Vance is probably the “more natural heir to MAGA” with his “more pugilistic style,” whereas Rubio “comes across as a smoother version of MAGA” as he leans into his diplomacy work, Roe said. 

“While certainly Marco’s stock is on the rise and JD’s has seemingly flatlined, there is a lot of game left to be played here,” Seitchik said. 

Both Vance and Rubio at various times have wielded clear influence within the administration.

At the Monday press conference, Trump mentioned that Rubio was a key part of the negotiations process with Iran.

“I felt that based on the negotiations that were being had with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and Marco and Pete [Hegseth] and everybody that was involved, I felt that they were looking to tap us all along,” he said of his decision to launch strikes against Iran. 

While some Trump allies say the moment at the press conference wasn’t a tell about where Trump stands on the two men, they say he’s clearly happy with the work Rubio has done. 

“Things could change obviously but I think if Trump had to pick a favorite at this moment, it would be Marco,” the fundraiser said. 

Still, the fundraiser warned that Rubio is “in a tenuous position and it’s fraught with danger.” 

“There’s a lot of things that could go wrong with the war and gas prices, but right now, he’s the hero, and not just with the president,” the fundraiser said. 

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