Republican lawmakers say there’s a good chance that President Trump's trade war will boomerang on Republicans politically in 2026, as rising prices and shrinking growth could offset other accomplishments by the GOP.

Republican senators are pointing to the 1932 and 1982 elections as historical examples of when trade wars and resulting price inflation hurt their party at the ballot box, and they are worried that history could repeat itself.

Many Republican lawmakers view tariffs as a tax hike on American consumers, and some note that the last two times Congress enacted tax hikes on the scale of Trump’s recent tariffs, the president’s party suffered a wipeout in the next election.

“In the national elections, you can go back to 1982 when I think it was about 26 congressional seats that were lost [by Republicans],” said Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who will be a top Democratic target in next year's midterm election.

In 1982, then-President Reagan’s first midterm election, the House GOP lost 26 seats amid high interest rates and voters’ sour view of the economy. The Senate GOP lost one seat in that cycle.

That same year, the Congress passed the Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act, which increased excise and corporate taxes and improved tax compliance — increasing federal revenue by nearly 1 percent according to the nonpartisan Tax Foundation.

“No doubt, if we’re having the same discussions about tariffs in February of next year, all the indicators would be ‘wrong track,’” Tillis said.

He said the Trump administration needs to land the favorable trade deals its promised by February of next year or Republicans could pay a steep political price.

“They’ve got about 10 months to wrap a bow around this and say, 'See, I told you so,’ or........

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