Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine entered its fifth year on 24 February, with no end in sight despite Russia’s vast material superiority.

Most experts expected Ukraine’s defeat within days. Russia’s population is more than three times Ukraine’s, its GDP around 10 times bigger, its army far larger, its arsenal of tanks, artillery, missiles and warplanes greater. Russia’s leadership, Putin included, expected Ukrainians to capitulate, perhaps even to welcome Russian troops. US and British intelligence predicted the war early, but also projected a rapid Russian victory.

Ukraine’s strong morale is one reason it has belied early doomsday predictions. Its army has suffered between 500,000 and 600,000 casualties, including between 100,000 and 140,000 fatalities, but retains the will to fight. Russia has reportedly suffered twice as many casualties: 1.2 million, including 219,000 deaths verified through obituaries and probate records. According to some estimates, fatalities total 325,000. Geolocated tallies show that roughly 24,000 pieces of Russian equipment have been destroyed, damaged, abandoned or seized. No one expected such losses, least of all Putin.

Ukrainian civilians have also braved terrible hardships. During the winter of 2022–23 Russia repeatedly struck Ukraine’s electricity grid, depriving millions of light, heat and even water. This brutal winter has been much worse. Russia launched thousands of drones and missiles to hit cities and power stations. Ukraine doesn’t have anywhere near the number of missile defences needed to protect these targets.

Yet any visitor to Ukraine will hear some version of this refrain: “We have no choice but to fight if we want to survive.” No Russian soldier believes his country........

© The Guardian