The Reserve Bank’s decision to raise interest rates on Tuesday came as little surprise to many in financial markets. But a split decision by the central bank’s monetary policy board – with five in favour of hiking and four wanting to stay on hold – shows very clearly why this outcome was never a done deal.

Many rate hawks were focused on a recent podcast with the RBA’s deputy governor, Andrew Hauser, where he said that “we have a problem with inflation. It’s too high.” But he also said in the same podcast that the “path of interest rates is [to deal with inflation] … is less certain”, especially given the global backdrop. That comment seems to have been largely ignored.

A certain amount of the recent rate spike hysteria has been driven by the strong rise in petrol prices resulting from conflict in the Middle East (as well as some apparent price-gouging by opportunistic petrol companies). Yet the RBA governor, Michele Bullock, in her post-decision press conference on Tuesday, said that higher petrol prices were “not the reason for today’s decision”.

So, what did prompt the RBA board – or at least half of them – to lift rates, just six weeks after an increase following the February monetary board meeting and amid heightened........

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