As I write this, I sigh and realise that despite the president of the United States dropping his threats to commit war crimes and destroy Iranian civilisation, he is always a chance to set the world on fire because it’s been more than 20 minutes since he had a Diet Coke.

This, of course, is hyperbolic. I think.

Economies are rather tough enough to predict without having to deal with the erratic actions of a man whose cerebrum is indistinguishable from a particularly rancid Chicken McNugget.

So take all of that into consideration.

The past week has seen an increase in concerns of a recession in the coming months. Various media outlets are polling economists and getting them to place odds.

At this point I am required to cite the old joke that economists have predicted 30 of the past five recessions. But on this I can at least stand aside from my peers.

I don’t mean to brag, but I am a bit of a savant at such things. After all, I was the bloke who in early February 2020 wrote an article titled “Bushfires and the coronavirus will hit Australia’s economy – but they won’t knock it out”.

So when I say we won’t have a recession, you can give that all the credibility it deserves.

The main reason for the recession concerns is Trump and Iran, and a thing from the 1970s called “stagflation”, where inflation rises while the economy stagnates and unemployment........

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