Pakistan's manufacturing sector is routinely described as being in decline. Shrinking shares of GDP, stagnant export baskets, and low industrial investment are cited as evidence of deindustrialisation. But a competing explanation deserves serious scrutiny: that the decline is at least partly a measurement artefact.

This raises an important question: Is it a genuine structural decline or statistical invisibility? Such statistical invisibility can occur through the systematic exclusion of informal, unregistered, or subcontracted enterprises.

The Census of Manufacturing Industries (CMI) and the Quantum Index of Manufacturing (QIM) are the two primary industrial data sources for Pakistan. However, these sources have structural limitations that exclude informal, small-scale, and unregistered producers. If these producers represent a substantial share of actual manufacturing activity, then the official picture of deindustrialisation is incomplete. The evidence from Gujranwala suggests that both are occurring simultaneously, but the policy response is focused entirely on the first, while the second goes unaddressed.

Gujranwala is the third-largest industrial city in Pakistan after Karachi and Faisalabad. The city is home to over 20,000 industrial units, more than 500,000 workers, and contributes roughly USD 2.5 billion........

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