The previous column argued that today's conflicts are better understood as wars of systems than clashes of civilisations. This column examines what those systemic wars actually cost and the patterns they are forming in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

History offers an unambiguous lesson: wars are rarely lost on the battlefield alone. They are lost in the gradual erosion of credibility, the weakening of financial foundations, and the misreading of adversaries who fight with patience rather than firepower.

Washington insists that it will not “run out” of weapons in a confrontation with Iran. Analysts reassure the public that American stockpiles remain deep. Technically, they are right. But the more important question is not whether the United States can win battles in the Gulf. It is what remains of its global position after the war.

Modern warfare is an unforgiving arithmetic. Intercepting a relatively inexpensive drone can require missiles costing millions of dollars. Technology determines capability, but cost determines endurance. That distinction is becoming increasingly evident with every passing day of this conflict.

Every defensive launch drains stockpiles that cannot be replenished overnight. Every day of sustained conflict in the Middle East inevitably limits the resources available for other theatres, from Europe’s confrontation with Russia to the Indo-Pacific rivalry with China.

This is the paradox of tactical victory: success in one arena may translate into strategic vulnerability elsewhere. But the deeper problem may not lie in American arsenals alone. It lies in the political and economic architecture of the Gulf.

The wealthy monarchies of the region, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain, are among the richest states in the world. Yet their prosperity rests on fragile structural foundations. Most import the majority of their food, rely heavily on desalination for water, and depend on expatriate labour forces to sustain large sectors of their economies.

Their security model has therefore........

© The Friday Times