Pakistan’s geostrategic significance has always been boasted by its leadership as a central factor shaping the foreign policy orientation of Pakistan.

“Pakistan is the pivot of the world, placed on the frontier on which the future position of the world revolves.”

The Founder of Pakistan, Quaid-i-Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah, uttered these words in his first interview with an American journalist, Margaret Bourke-White, who published it as the cover story of LIFE magazine in January 1948. He further stated, “America needs Pakistan more than Pakistan needs America.”

In the early Cold War period during the 1950s, however, India initially appeared to be the preferred choice of the United States, and it was only after India’s reluctance to formally align with Western military alliances that America entered into defence arrangements with Pakistan in 1954–55.

Later, during major geopolitical crises—such as the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan in 1979 and the post-9/11 US-led War on Terror—the US needed Pakistani help more than Pakistan needed the US. In the current geopolitical environment, in the wake of the US–Iran war, Pakistan has once again become the centre stage of diplomatic activity around de-escalation in the Middle East.

It was not very long ago, however, that after the Uri incident in Kashmir in 2016, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi threatened to “isolate Pakistan” on the international stage. He actively engaged global leaders and forums, portraying Pakistan as a state associated with terrorism—hence a failed and rogue state—arguing that it should be boycotted and that business ties should be severed.

During this period, India’s diplomatic outreach expanded significantly, including high-profile visits to key Middle Eastern states such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, where Modi received exceptionally warm receptions. At this point, India enjoyed very close relations with most South Asian countries and particularly viewed Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, and Afghanistan as extensions of its foreign policy.

Simultaneously, India’s relationship with the United States deepened into a significant strategic partnership. Washington increasingly viewed India as a key counterweight to China in the evolving regional balance of power. Consequently, the United States began to project India not only as a leading power in South Asia but also as an emerging major actor in the broader Asia-Pacific strategic landscape.

On the other hand, Pakistan was bracketed with Afghanistan under the “Af-Pak” framework. Domestically, Pakistan was grappling with severe security challenges, exemplified by the Army Public School Peshawar attack and similar incidents, which exposed the depth of militancy within the country.

Modi’s high-profile visit to Israel in February 2025, just before the outbreak of war, has made India less popular in Iran and across parts of the Middle East

Modi’s high-profile visit to Israel in February 2025, just before the outbreak of war, has made India less popular in Iran and across parts of the Middle East

On the external front, Pakistan faced sustained scrutiny from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), with the looming threat of blacklisting casting a shadow over its economy and international reputation. Together, these internal vulnerabilities and external pressures limited Pakistan’s diplomatic manoeuvrability at a time when India was actively shaping international perceptions within the framework of their long-standing rivalry.

In recent years, however, regional dynamics appear to have shifted, altering the strategic environment for both India and Pakistan. Critics argue that a more assertive and ideologically driven foreign policy—often associated with Hindutva—has complicated India’s relations with some of its South Asian neighbours, contributing to diplomatic strains within the region.

Regional alignments have shown signs of recalibration. Over the last decade, countries such as Sri Lanka have maintained close engagement with Pakistan. Moreover, increasing diplomatic and strategic engagement between Pakistan and states such as Bangladesh and Nepal points to a significant reconfiguration of regional alignments, potentially undermining India’s long-standing hegemonic position in South Asia. In Afghanistan, the return of the Taliban to power in 2021 significantly altered the regional balance, reducing India’s direct influence. While India is attempting to re-establish its presence, China is already well-positioned there with the Taliban regime.

In what critics describe as strategic missteps, Modi took two major decisions in Kashmir that proved costly for India. First, he abrogated Articles 370 and 35A of the Indian Constitution, changing the status of Jammu and Kashmir at the start of his second term in 2019. This move marked a significant shift in India’s federal structure and its long-standing policy towards the region.

These actions, combined with the Modi government’s broader policies towards Muslims within India, have contributed to a decline in India’s global image as a pluralistic democracy. While India largely avoided significant international repercussions—owing in part to the strength of its economy and its strategic importance to major powers such as the United States—these developments nonetheless attracted considerable criticism in global political and human rights discourse.

A further escalation came when India launched the so-called “Operation Sindoor” against Pakistan following the Pahalgam incident, despite contested claims regarding Pakistan’s involvement. In the ensuing five-day conflict, India reportedly suffered significant losses, including the loss of several aircraft—described by US President Donald Trump as “seven beautiful jets”—and a perceived decline in its position as a strategic counterweight to China in the eyes of the United States. The Trump-brokered ceasefire provided Pakistan with an opportunity to re-engage with Washington and rebuild strategic trust after a prolonged period of strained relations.

Pakistan is now at the centre of peace efforts and negotiations aimed at de-escalating the US–Iran conflict, suggesting that both Washington and Tehran view Islamabad as a credible interlocutor, a position that would have seemed unlikely only a few years ago. This marks a significant departure from the recent past, when Pakistan’s role in high-stakes international diplomacy appeared limited.

Today, it is increasingly seen as a key actor capable of bridging divides in one of the most volatile geopolitical confrontations, highlighting its re-emergence on the global stage.

It is also worth recalling that Iran was once a close ally of India. New Delhi invested hundreds of millions of dollars in developing the deep-water Chabahar port to bypass Pakistan and access Afghanistan and Central Asia. During this period, Indian intelligence engagement in Iran was also considered significant.

However, relations between Tehran and New Delhi have since deteriorated. Iranian concerns have reportedly grown over the possibility that sensitive information may have been compromised, with suspicions—though unproven—of intelligence leaks that may have benefited Israel in targeting strategic locations within Iran.

Additionally, Modi’s high-profile visit to Israel in February 2025, just before the outbreak of war, has made India less popular in Iran and across parts of the Middle East. This move has been widely interpreted as signalling India’s strategic alignment with Israel, potentially at the expense of its relations with the Arab world.

Taken together, these developments help explain why, in the current geopolitical environment, India appears to have experienced a relative decline in its regional and diplomatic influence, with signs of growing isolation.

In contrast, Pakistan—once the target of Modi’s calls for international isolation—has increasingly positioned itself at the centre of diplomatic engagements, playing a more visible and active role in key international negotiations.

In contemporary South Asia, Pakistan appears to enjoy broader diplomatic support than India—a striking reversal of historical patterns. In the Middle East, countries such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran, Egypt, and Qatar increasingly view Pakistan favourably. On the global stage, Pakistan maintains strong relationships with major powers, including China, Russia, the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union.

In the 78 years since its independence, Pakistan has rarely, if ever, held such a relative advantage over India in terms of foreign policy influence and international partnerships.

© The Friday Times