In the last almost fifty years of the revolutionary regime in Iran, the country has never faced such a great threat to its survival. Eight years of war with Iraq (1980–88), internal revolts against the revolution of February 1979, and sustained sanctions imposed by the United States and the West failed to destabilise Iran.

But the U.S.–Israeli attack launched against Iran on February 28 this year reflects a great moment of truth for Tehran because of the massive destruction caused by aerial and naval attacks. Yet, despite the assassination of Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, by a coordinated U.S.–Israel attack and constant bombing of its military and civilian targets, the revolutionary regime has survived.

The implications of war in the Gulf are lethal. The surge in the prices of oil and the disruption of supply chains because of the partial closing of the Strait of Hormuz, as well as Tehran’s attacks on Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain and the U.A.E., reflect the escalation of war beyond the United States and Israel. Pakistan, a neighbour of Iran, is also vulnerable to the strategic, political and economic fallout of that war.

The Pak–Saudi defence pact has been invoked, but Islamabad must understand the fact that any attack on Iran will cause a domino effect on Pakistan because of domestic repercussions. It is not only the 20 per cent Shia population of Pakistan which will retaliate against any attack on Iran under the cover of the defence pact with Saudi Arabia, but the vast majority of people of this country will go to any extent in opposing an attack on Iran.

Iran’s massive stockpile of ballistic missiles and drones has so far sustained Tehran’s attacks on U.S. bases and Israel, but how long Iran will be able to cope with the colossal firepower of the United States and Israel is yet to be seen. The Iranian president has apologised to Gulf countries for attacks on their territories, but he has made it clear that his country will not remain silent if........

© The Friday Times